29 May

Pundits get more followers for being confident than correct

“Jadrian Wooten, left, and Ben Smith analyzed a billion tweets and found the popularity of a pundit hinges more on whether he or she is confident than right”

(Via For pundits, it’s better to be confident than correct.)

Even recently in the survivorship bias post, people who were acolytes of certain pundits were outraged (and some started working on spreading rumors about me) rather than accept the message I was trying to send that ‘it’s complicated, and hard work’ because they ‘knew’ the ‘obvious’ message that they’ve been hearing for so long.

To be honest, there are long days where I wish I could be strident and say one true way of anything works… mostly I know the older I get, the more I read, the more I learn, the more I find out about what I don’t know…

I also find that strident pundits often come with a side of Dunning-Kruger effect:

The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes.